Grizzly Bomb’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Nov. 30-Dec. 2

It’s almost the weekend and that means I’m back with some box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. This should be interesting considering it’s a pretty weak release weekend with only two films going wide in Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt and the sequel to that 2009 horror film The Collector, The Collection. So yeah…kind of a slow week following that record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend. Speaking of, let’s review how I did in terms of that…

So Thanksgiving weekend pretty much blew everyone’s mind away, myself included. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 pretty much fell close to my prediction of 60 million over the five-day holiday weekend pulling in 64 million. Skyfall came in about even with my 50 million dollar prediction, showing that it’ll follow the path of Casino Royale in terms of its box office run. However, destroying my prediction of only 20 million during the long weekend, Lincoln took third place with a surprising (to me at least) 34 million. That was my big surprise with that destroying my prediction of 20 million as I misunderstood the draw of dead presidents to the modern moviegoer. Rise of the Guardians fell way under my guess of 45 million with only 32 million banked, basically saying that the marketing definitely didn’t blow anyone away to make it a must see family movie over Wreck-It Ralph. The other mini surprise would be Life of Pi, the epic film that no one thought could be marketed to anyone after the Cloud Atlas confusion/debacle because it went past my prediction of 25 million (which even I thought was too high as I wrote it), with a 30 million dollar score for the Ang Lee helmed 3D pic. The previously mentioned Wreck-It Ralph came in close with my prediction of 20 million, scoring 22 million to end the frame and the other new release Red Dawn took in a solid 21 million over my prediction of 16 million. Overall, my big misses happened to be Rise of the Guardians and definitely Lincoln but hey, you can’t win them all. If anything, I got a free movie ticket from Dr. Kronner because I bet him that Life of Pi would score more than 20 million, where he thought it wouldn’t touch it. So I definitely won in that race so I’ll take it. With that, let’s delve into the new movies that are coming out and what the holdovers will do post-Thanksgiving.

Killing Them Softly is the new Brad Pitt rated-R movie about an enforcer hired to restore order after three dumb guys rob a mob protected card game, causing the local criminal economy to collapse. Never heard of it? That’s not shocking because I barely heard of it and I took that description from IMDB. However, the movie is from the guy who did Chopper, aka the Eric Bana is a badass movie, and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, which was good but bores me when I attempt to think about it. The movie is opening in a pretty modest 2,424 theaters compared to the last few releases and will fight with Lincoln, Flight and Skyfall for the same adult male demographics. The comparison will probably look closer to another R-rated Brad Pitt flick, Burn After Reading. That movie did an average of 7k per screen and opened in 2600 theaters to a 19 million opening weekend. However, I feel that it will probably get swallowed up by the other movies, especially the way that Lincoln is surging so maybe a better comparison would be Seven Psychopaths. That movie initially opened to a 4 million dollar opening with just under a 3k per screen average. Thinking on both movies, it will probably resemble this movie more than Burn After Reading considering that was almost an aberration (a Coen Brothers movie making almost 20 million opening weekend? That was a rarity until this and True Grit came along…) Anyways, let’s go with a 4k average per screen which means that you’ll see a 9.5 million dollar debut from Mr. Jolie. Not exceptional but it wasn’t the most marketable movie in the world.

The other movie opening wide barely seems worthy of mentioning. Seeing that The Collector, the prequel to current movie The Collection, opened in about the same amount of screens (1325 versus 1403 for the newer sequel) and made 3.6 million that weekend. I won’t even go that high as I think it’ll drop 2 million for a crappy 1.5k per screen average. There’s a lot of good movies of substance and style over this flick “by the writers of Saw”. I’m sure other moviegoers will note this, if it even shows up in the local theaters that is.

Now to the holdovers, with Breaking Dawn – Part 2 following the same path as Part 1, we should see a 60% decline resulting into a 17 million dollar three day weekend score. Skyfall will have a small decline in comparison, probably in the 40% range keeping it in line with Casino Royale, which should end up with 21 million for the weekend. Lincoln should continue its strong run and I only see a 35% drop, which is good considering it’s the drop off for a holiday weekend where 50% declines are more common. That should take it to 17 million for the weekend as the Spielberg flick continues its strong run towards its inevitable awards awaiting at the finish line. Rise of the Guardians should be interesting as it will dive into the 50% decline because the audience isn’t there, nor is the word of mouth as strong as most animated flicks are during this time. Look for a 12 million disappointing sophomore frame as someone is DEFINITELY going to get fired at Dreamworks animation for this movie. Life of Pi I think will continue its good start with a small 35% decline as people will want to find out what all the fuss is about. With that, it should bring it to a 15 million weekend as we still if America bites onto the lure Ang Lee has cast. Red Dawn will probably have a pretty hard fall as it got destroyed in reviews (12% from RottenTomatoes) so look for a 60% decline, resulting in a 6 million dollar second frame. Wreck-It Ralph will probably continue its consistent run with a 35% decline so it’ll draw in 11 million for the weekend, holding up a lot better than Rise of the Guardians. Let’s review!

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1.) Skyfall: 21 million
2.(tied) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2: 17 million
2. (tied) Lincoln: 17 million
4.) Life of Pi: 15 million
5.) Rise of the Guardians: 12 million
6.) Wreck-It Ralph: 11 million
7.) Killing Them Softly: 9.5 million
8.) Red Dawn: 6 million
Somewhere in BFE.) The Collection: 2 million

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And with that, let the weekend begin, have fun at the movies, and I await your judgements to see if I got any of these correct!

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