Tag Archives: Lincoln

Grizzly Bomb’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Jan. 11-13

It’s been awhile since I’ve ventured back into the prediction business and after today’s Oscar nominations, I’m pretty fired up now and ready to view some good movies and see the impact it’ll have on the marketplace. That’s right people, the Dartboard Box Office Predictions are back and I’m ready to be embarrassed yet again with some misguided picks.

"Gangster Squad" posterThere are three major releases this weekend, with one of them being a wide expansion. First, we have Gangster Squad, the Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling, and Sean Penn led period flick, then we have A Haunted House from Marlon Wayans, trying to recapture the glory days of Scary Movie, and then Zero Dark Thirty goes wide finally to take advantage of the Oscar nominations announcement. In regards to Gangster Squad, I’ve been trying to think of a good comparison for the movie. It’s not quite a complete A-list filled movie, just actors that are either on the cusp of movie star or rising stars ready to break out. The closest thing might be Looper in my mind with rising stars compared to Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Emily Blunt and the backing of an older star like Bruce Willis. With Gangster Squad sporting Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and Sean Penn playing the role as legitimate Hollywood veteran, that’s the best comparison I could think of. Looper came out in almost 3000 screens and grossed almost 21 million with an almost 7k per screen average. I see something similar for Gangster Squad, although the movie might lose a bit of its legs because it’s getting mixed reviews. Gangster Squad opens in 3100 screens and should drum up about 6.5k per screen, so that will give it 20 million to start the weekend off.

Tougher to predict is A Haunted House. With only one Wayans brother trying to duplicate the magic of the Scary Movie franchise, it’s hard to think that this will succeed. But that might also do with the fact that the franchise was complete garbage so my initial prejudice is to completely ask this movie to bomb. However, the people always come out in force for these types of movies. The last spoof movie to come out was Vampires Suck and that grossed 12 million in 3200 theaters, which is shocking because I had no recollection of that even being in theaters to begin with. I’d like to add that I hate 90% of all spoof movies so seeing commercials for this made me want to throw up. With that, it should do something similar to Vampires Suck, which had almost 4k per screen average. A Haunted House opens on 2100 theaters so I predict a 4k per screen average for a 8.5 million opening frame. I will say that this can blow up quickly and I’m wary about under-predicting on this one. With no real competition against it, I have a feeling this will be a movie to watch closely. Despite the fact I have zero desire in seeing it.

zero-dark-thirty1Lastly, we have Zero Dark Thirty going wide and this should challenge for the top spot this weekend. Obviously they were relying on challenging Lincoln for the most nominees but surprisingly, they ended up with only 5, not even including a Best Director nod for Kathryn Bigelow. This should still receive a boost in the box office though as it moves to 2900 theaters nationwide. Last year, when The Artist expanded, it drew in a 39.8% increase on box office output, although it only increased by 235 theaters. Last year The Descendants increased their theaters after the nominations came out to 2000 theaters, a 1400 screen increase. That resulted in a 170% increased box office dollar result. I think that might be more in line but still only resulted in a 3k per screen average. Last weekend, in 60 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty averaged almost 45k per screen. Obviously that is way too out of line to be expected this week. So let’s go with a 8k average per screen for a final result of 23 million for the weekend.

As for the holdovers, we expect Lincoln to get a mini-boost, as well as the other Oscar-nominated pictures. Looking at Django Unchained first, that should only decline by 30% despite competition for the R-rated audiences so it’ll result in a 14 million dollar take. Les Miserables will also see a slight decline of 30% as people check out the Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway nominated movie so that will result in an 11 million dollar take. Lincoln should see a big increase probably from the previous week so look for a 9 million dollar weekend for them. Life of Pi will get a slight increase too but only to probably 4 million as the marketplace is flooded and the movie is already two months into its current run. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will continue it’s 50% decline, giving it 9 million for the weekend. Parental Guidance is also proving to be a solid hit and should decline about 40% to reach 6 million, as well as Jack Reacher which also will get about 6 million with new films in the marketplace to take from its demographic. This Is 40 will get about a 40% decline to result in a 5 million dollar frame as well. Texas Chainsaw 3D will probably get a MASSIVE decline of 70% and end with 8 million as horror movies never hold up over the long period of time. The horrific reviews don’t help either. Overall, let’s see how it all shapes out:

[box_dark]1.) Zero Dark Thirty: 23 million
2.) Gangster Squad: 20 million
3.) Django Unchained: 14 million
4.) Les Miserables: 11 million
5.) (tied) Lincoln: 9 million
5.) (tied) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: 9 million
7.) A Haunted House: 8.5 million
8.) Texas Chainsaw 3D: 8 million
9.) (tied) Parental Guidance: 6 million
9.) (tied) Jack Reacher: 6 million[/box_dark]

Those are the predictions, so we’ll see. Otherwise, it’s going to be a busy weekend for me. Time to catch up as I fill up some Oscar ballots and win me some Oscar pools!

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Here’s the 2013 Academy Award Nominations! Let the Whining Commence!

So the nominations for the 85th Academy Awards were released and admittedly, the one thing that I figured they could not mess up, they massively screw up. I’ll get to that in a second but let’s start off with who got the most nominations. Lincoln led the way with 12 nominations, with Life of Pi coming up with 11 nominations itself. Silver Linings Playbook managed to get nominations in all the acting categories, ending with 8 nominations. Argo also got 7 nominations but it should have been 8. Again I digress so before I drop into what I thought were true crimes, let’s go over which movies I thought deserved major props.

silver linings 2I am glad that Joaquin Phoenix did make the nominee list for best actor, despite his rant on hating the Oscar campaigning process and the idea of acting awards. Yeah it’s a political process that is kind of stupid and narcissistic but that should have no effect on how great he was in The Master. I still think he’ll lose to Daniel Day-Lewis in the end but, I mean seriously, who else can stop Lincoln‘s momentum after scoring 12 nominations? As for Best Actress, I’m happy that Jennifer Lawrence got her Oscar nomination because I thought she did a great job in Silver Linings Playbook on a role that could have gone south with any other actress. Ditto with Bradley Cooper getting his first nomination for his portrayal of the bi-polar protagonist. He’s come a pretty long way since we saw him The Wedding Crashers. Also, seeing 9 year old Quvenzhané Wallis and 85 year old Emmanuelle Riva nominated is pretty cool to see, considering it creates a record for the largest age gap in nominees in Oscar history. Supporting Actor made me happy with Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro being nominated for Argo and Silver Linings Playbook respectively. De Niro did a terrific job especially with his understated role as the father struggling to help and connect with his son.

argo 4Now to the major issues I have with the list. Number one? Why in the living crap is Ben Affleck not nominated for Best Director? This is the most mind-baffling thing in the world to see considering I thought that Argo was one of the best movies of the year. It did score 7 nominations but I felt it was massively due to the deft handling behind the camera by the actor/director. This honestly kept me in shock for a few minutes before I started writing this article. I can understand why Tom Hooper was not nominated for Les Miserables because people were either loving or hating his direction but Ben Affleck made Argo work and flow beautifully. Another surprise was that Kathryn Bigelow was not nominated for Best Director as well and that Zero Dark Thirty only scored 5 nominations. With that, I think we can predict that Lincoln will have a good chance to dominate the Oscars next month at this rate.

_SHX0069.NEFAlso why the heck did Perks of a Being a Wallflower and Looper not get nominated for Adapted and Best Original Screenplay respectively? Looper was one of the most creative stories I’ve seen in a movie and it’s a crime that Rian Johnson did not  get recognition from the Academy for this one. Stephen Chbosky, in adapting and directing his own novel, should have also got recognition for the great writing and translating to the screen. It kept the spirit of the novel and yet made it entertaining and movie ready so he deserved props for that. Also, why not nominate Skyfall or The Dark Knight Rises for Best Picture? In terms of The Dark Knight Rises, that movie gets better with every viewing and while not as strong as The Dark Knight, it should’ve gotten some sort of nomination, maybe getting Christopher Nolan on the board for Best Director. Again, that’s asking a bit much considering my earlier rant on the snubbed nominees. About Skyfall, I thought it was brilliant and deserved the recognition of being one of the smartest Bond, if not action, movies in a long while. Speaking of, why not even throw in Javier Bardem at least for his Bond villain portrayal? His stuff was great and he owned the screen. Maybe even Samuel L. Jackson or Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained but that Supporting Actor list is pretty solid so I can’t argue that too much. How about Ann Dowd in Compliance? I know it was an uphill battle but man, it would have been cool to see her make the list.

I could go on and on but I’m going to provide the list, thanks EW.com for getting it organized by the way, so you can argue with me on social media about it because…man, I’m a little annoyed with some of the movies and actors not getting their due. I guess we’ll find out on February 24th who the big winners will be. Although if Paperman doesn’t win Best Animated Short, I’m going to riot.

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Hanake
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin,
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Best Animated Feature:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Best Film Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour, Austria
Kon-Tiki, Norway
No, Chile
A Royal Affair, Denmark
War Witch, Canada

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Les Misérables, Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

Best Original Song
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice, music and lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted, music by Walter Murphy; lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi, music by Mychael Danna; lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from Skyfall, music and lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables, music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
Les Misérables, Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi, Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Lincoln, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
Paperman

Best Live Action Short
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow 
Henry

Best Sound Editing
Argo, Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained, Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi, Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
Skyfall, Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson

Best Sound Mixing
Argo, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
Life of Pi, Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
Lincoln, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
Skyfall, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
The Avengers, Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
Prometheus, Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman, Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Grizzly Bomb’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Dec. 14-16

I do love when big releases come out outside the summer because they seem to carry more weight because there is less out there in the movie landscape. You don’t have to divide your attention into several event movies like you do in the summer, as you’ll get usually just one per season that is set to blow your mind. This weekend, my friends, are one of those events. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey comes out and it’s the only wide release this weekend so it has all of your attention. I looked at my Facebook feed on Thursday night and I saw bunches of people posting the pics or statuses of going and getting dressed up for it. It’s these type of events that get me psyched up to see movies because there’s nothing more invigorating than sitting a full theater with all the people that are geeking out about one film. Everyone laughs in the same spots, gets pumped up at certain times, and everyone cheers in the end. Stuff like that gets me excited to go to the movie theater and believe me, there will be a TON of people excited with me. How many people and how much money is to be earned? Let’s get into that right now because this is…the Box Office Predictions of the Hobbit weekend, aka December 14th through 16th!

The Hobbit

Of course, we have to see how I did the weekend before. While I did well in terms of predicting Skyfall reaching the top spot, even garnering props from fellow writer Amanda, I also deservedly got crap for saying that Playing For Keeps was going to tie it for first place. That, in hindsight, was a stupid choice. Skyfall did reach number one but it definitely overshot my estimate of 9 million to end with 10.7 million for the weekend. In 2nd place was Rise of the Guardians, which held up stronger than I thought it would, good news for Dreamworks Animation, as it almost snagged first place but got 10.4 million compared to my low prediction of 6.5 million. In 3rd, Breaking Dawn – Part 2 ended up with 9 million, just ahead of my 8 million prediction. Lincoln also powered through my projection and scored 9 million instead of my guess of 7 million. Life of Pi showed some legs as it scored 8 million versus my 6 million I projected. Then of course, Playing For Keeps, did NOT make my 9 million prediction, instead tanking at just under 6 million. I wish I could say it won’t happen again. But I like to keep you guys on your toes.

comic-con-the-hobbit-poster1Let’s do this then. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It’s coming out. It’s in IMAX. It’s in 3D. It’s in HFR 3D. It’s in freaking IMAX HFR 3D! You have several options to watch this flick and at 2 hours and 45 minutes, hopefully you pick the right option for you. Basically the reason I mention all of these is because you’re going to have options that are going to cost more than the average ticket. How it was supposed to be seen is in HFR 3D and you know theaters will tack on higher pricing for those tickets. Plus it’s the freaking Hobbit. We’ve all been waiting for so long to see this come out, almost like how Skyfall was waiting with the MGM bankruptcy too and look at all the buzz that got and all the people that came out to the theater to check that out. We’re due for an epic and this comes at the right time. However, the reviews are coming back more mixed than usual so this will be an interesting test. That and the almost 3 hour run time might bog down on screenings but that never stopped it previously, right? Alright, let’s look at some comparisons: The Matrix Reloaded and Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace.

box office jar jarThat’s right, I’m invoking the two most vilified returns to a franchise. Not because I think The Hobbit will trip and drop the torch like these movies did, but the numbers should be similar on what to expect in terms of buzz and people coming to watch their franchise come back. The Matrix Reloaded did an amazing 91 million and averaged 25k per screen despite the fact that everyone came out of the movie and wondered aloud what just happened on the screen. However, it drew so many people excited to see the return to the Matrix so everyone spent money to take it all in. Episode 1 did the same, everyone was so psyched to see light sabers, the force and Natalie Portman on the big screen in an epic return to the battle between good and the Sith. Yeah, after the fact, we knew this to be a horrible exercise in poor storytelling and vision and Jar Jar but again, everyone still came out in droves. While it didn’t pull in as much as The Matrix Reloaded, it did 64 million for the weekend, it still managed to average almost 22k per screen in only 2900 screens. The per screen average is going to be the big indicator on what The Hobbit will do. It’s going to do over 20k easily just because of ticket prices alone and it will fill theaters up and will probably get some repeat customers because that’s what crazed fans do for these types of movies as they want to pick up on all the small details.

Dear lord, this brings back memories of awkwardness and confusion in the theater...
Dear lord, this brings back memories of awkwardness and confusion in the theater…

So what’s it going to do? Well, here’s my prediction on The Hobbit. It’s coming in to 4045 theaters. We take that number and seeing how there is zero competition out there and that people have been clamoring for this for years, I’d say it’s going to do 28k average per screen. That puts it on pace for 113 million for the weekend. That number scares me because admittedly, I’ve been staring at predictions I’ve seen 80 million to 140 million. I guess this puts me right in the middle so hopefully the numbers will guide me the right way.

I almost don’t even care to predict how the other movies will turn out but we gotta make sure everyone is covered despite the concentration being on those dwarves and Bilbo. Skyfall will dip 45% to 6 million, Rise of the Guardians will drop 30% to 7 million, Twilight will drop another 50% to 5 million, Lincoln will drop 25% to 7 million due to recent nomination buzz, Life of Pi will drop 35% as 3D theaters will be taken away and that will result in 5 million for the weekend. Playing For Keeps will drop out of the sky at 65% and will garner only a 2 million return in its second weekend. Let’s recap, shall we?

 

[box_dark]1.) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: 113 million
2.) (tied) Rise of the Guardians: 7 million
3.) Lincoln: 7 million
4.) Skyfall: 6 million
5.) (tied) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2: 5 million
5.) (tied)Life of Pi: 5 million[/box_dark]

Now we’ll see how this goes and have fun watching The Hobbit and look for our review on Saturday! We’ll be checking it out in HFR 3D by the way with the new frame rate so we’ll see how that goes. Enjoy Middle Earth my friends!

Grizzly Bomb’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Dec. 7-9

Man, that was a rough week last week. Not so much with my predictions but the box office has really taken a dive with new releases. Nothing is connecting with the audience as we saw Brad Pitt bomb with his latest and there is not a savior on the horizon until probably next week once The Hobbit comes out. Instead we get a Gerard Butler movie that fails to distinguish itself from other Gerard Butler movies. Guess what? 300 happened six years ago. Probably need to call Jason Statham and ask how he’s stayed relevant. Better yet, call Jude Law and ask him now not to be the next Jude Law. Talented actor but man, I feel his stupid crap is being projected more than say, Coriolanus. We’ll get to his prediction on his mark at the box office this weekend in a bit but first, as always, let’s see how I did last weekend.

I may have said that Skyfall was going to regain the top spot of number 1 at the box office with 21 million. Unfortunately, my love of the James Bond film isn’t matching the numbers. The actual number one was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2, which opened with 17 million, which was on par with my target. Skyfall came in second with 16.5 million, which still projects pretty good because it is at 245 million total domestically and may top out at 280-290 million by the end of its record-setting run. Rise of the Guardians did better than my 12 million dollar prediction and scored 13 million but still stands to lose money as this is a very underwhelming number for Dreamworks Animation.. I also thought Lincoln would continue its strong run but it also dipped a bit to 13 million, which was down from my 17 million dollar prediction. Life of Pi also did not reach my prediction of 15 million, instead getting 12 million. This film will be interesting to follow because with The Hobbit coming in and taking from the demographic and the 3D screens, we might see whether this film has legs to earn its cash back or not. Wreck It-Ralph went way under my prediction of 11 million and scored 7 million after the final tally. Killing Them Softly opened weak with only 7 million as well, coming under my prediction of 9.5 million. What didn’t help was the Cinemascore, which measures audiences grades after the movie, where it scored an abysmal ‘F’. I find that extremely hard to believe but apparently people hated this movie and without a doubt, this movie will disappear from the theaters very quickly. Red Dawn came in on par with my 6 million dollar prediction and The Collection actually scored 3 million dollars, beating my 2 million prediction but like Brad Pitt, expect a quick exit from the theaters.

With that, let’s tackle the one new release coming out, Playing For Keeps. I just watched the trailer and…it’s just…I don’t even want to describe it. It would be a waste of time trying to come up with words that wouldn’t feel like a studio executive doing Mad Libs for a romantic comedy/drama. I’ll quote the IMDB description just so I don’t make it sound generic: A former sports star who’s fallen on hard times starts coaching his son’s soccer team as a way to get his life together. His attempts to become an adult are met with challenges from the attractive soccer moms who pursue him at every turn. Yeah, that doesn’t sound generic at all. It also stars Jessica Biel, Uma Thurman, Catherina Zeta-Jones and Dennis Quaid and holy crap, this doesn’t even try to sound interesting. However, I don’t think it will do as poorly as some of Gerard Butler’s previous movies. Chasing Mavericks totally bombed but we can’t look at that because the marketing on that was just horrendous. I thought of two movies released pre-Christmas time that had about the same amount of marketing and names that weren’t A-list elite but no one could sneeze at neither. Those two movies for comparison? How Do You Know and Did You Hear About the Morgans. I figured this movie is getting about the same star power as those movies and the marketing matched Morgans closely in terms of exposure. Plus they both opened in the same amount of theaters. How Do You Know carried a 3k per screen average into 2400 theaters to score a 7.5 million debut and Morgans opened with a 2.5k per screen average in 2700 theaters to get a 6.6 million debut. Playing For Keeps is opening in about 2700 theaters so I think it’s safe to say we’re going to get a 3.5k per screen average because there’s just no competition out there whatsoever. However, this movie will still open a bit softly because that will equal out to a 9 million dollar debut. Not bad I guess compared to Chasing Mavericks but please, I bet Clive Owen is laughing somewhere because you’re taking the crap he was offered and turned down.

This Holiday Season, Gerard Butler deserves a new agent.

Now to the holdovers this week with Twilight leading the way as the returning champion. It’s tracking exactly like Breaking Dawn – Part 1 so look for a 55% drop which will result in a 8 million dollar result. Skyfall, however, I think will have a shorter drop, with a 45% decline resulting in a 9 million dollar opening as well. I guess I’m just trying to will this movie back to the number one spot with my predictions lately. Rise of the Guardians will see a 50% drop resulting in a 6.5 million dollar weekend. Lincoln will probably see a 45% drop to reach 7 million for the weekend. Life of Pi should carry a 50% drop which will get it 6 million as the buzz begins to fade before everyone’s best of lists are revealed by the end of the year. Life of Pi is getting a lot of visual recognition but is not making the impact quite yet amongst the critics in their top awards. Again, we shall see as the year draws to a close. With that, let’s see how this tepid box office weekend prediction shakes out:

[box_dark]1.) (tied) Skyfall: 9 million
1.) (tied) Playing For Keeps: 9 million
3.)  The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2: 8 million
4.) Lincoln: 7 million
5.) Rise of the Guardians: 6.5 million
6.) Life of Pi: 6 million[/box_dark]

I’m aware that I just put Playing For Keeps tied for first after I totally bashed it but it’s the only new release this week and everyone wants something new to see. I think it will be a modest opening before it gets swallowed up by the Peter Jackson crew next week. So call it a lack of options for the moviegoer. Who knows, maybe Butler proves me wrong and just dominates this weekend. I highly doubt it but there’s only one way to find out…

Grizzly Bomb’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Nov. 30-Dec. 2

It’s almost the weekend and that means I’m back with some box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. This should be interesting considering it’s a pretty weak release weekend with only two films going wide in Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt and the sequel to that 2009 horror film The Collector, The Collection. So yeah…kind of a slow week following that record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend. Speaking of, let’s review how I did in terms of that…

So Thanksgiving weekend pretty much blew everyone’s mind away, myself included. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 pretty much fell close to my prediction of 60 million over the five-day holiday weekend pulling in 64 million. Skyfall came in about even with my 50 million dollar prediction, showing that it’ll follow the path of Casino Royale in terms of its box office run. However, destroying my prediction of only 20 million during the long weekend, Lincoln took third place with a surprising (to me at least) 34 million. That was my big surprise with that destroying my prediction of 20 million as I misunderstood the draw of dead presidents to the modern moviegoer. Rise of the Guardians fell way under my guess of 45 million with only 32 million banked, basically saying that the marketing definitely didn’t blow anyone away to make it a must see family movie over Wreck-It Ralph. The other mini surprise would be Life of Pi, the epic film that no one thought could be marketed to anyone after the Cloud Atlas confusion/debacle because it went past my prediction of 25 million (which even I thought was too high as I wrote it), with a 30 million dollar score for the Ang Lee helmed 3D pic. The previously mentioned Wreck-It Ralph came in close with my prediction of 20 million, scoring 22 million to end the frame and the other new release Red Dawn took in a solid 21 million over my prediction of 16 million. Overall, my big misses happened to be Rise of the Guardians and definitely Lincoln but hey, you can’t win them all. If anything, I got a free movie ticket from Dr. Kronner because I bet him that Life of Pi would score more than 20 million, where he thought it wouldn’t touch it. So I definitely won in that race so I’ll take it. With that, let’s delve into the new movies that are coming out and what the holdovers will do post-Thanksgiving.

Killing Them Softly is the new Brad Pitt rated-R movie about an enforcer hired to restore order after three dumb guys rob a mob protected card game, causing the local criminal economy to collapse. Never heard of it? That’s not shocking because I barely heard of it and I took that description from IMDB. However, the movie is from the guy who did Chopper, aka the Eric Bana is a badass movie, and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, which was good but bores me when I attempt to think about it. The movie is opening in a pretty modest 2,424 theaters compared to the last few releases and will fight with Lincoln, Flight and Skyfall for the same adult male demographics. The comparison will probably look closer to another R-rated Brad Pitt flick, Burn After Reading. That movie did an average of 7k per screen and opened in 2600 theaters to a 19 million opening weekend. However, I feel that it will probably get swallowed up by the other movies, especially the way that Lincoln is surging so maybe a better comparison would be Seven Psychopaths. That movie initially opened to a 4 million dollar opening with just under a 3k per screen average. Thinking on both movies, it will probably resemble this movie more than Burn After Reading considering that was almost an aberration (a Coen Brothers movie making almost 20 million opening weekend? That was a rarity until this and True Grit came along…) Anyways, let’s go with a 4k average per screen which means that you’ll see a 9.5 million dollar debut from Mr. Jolie. Not exceptional but it wasn’t the most marketable movie in the world.

The other movie opening wide barely seems worthy of mentioning. Seeing that The Collector, the prequel to current movie The Collection, opened in about the same amount of screens (1325 versus 1403 for the newer sequel) and made 3.6 million that weekend. I won’t even go that high as I think it’ll drop 2 million for a crappy 1.5k per screen average. There’s a lot of good movies of substance and style over this flick “by the writers of Saw”. I’m sure other moviegoers will note this, if it even shows up in the local theaters that is.

Now to the holdovers, with Breaking Dawn – Part 2 following the same path as Part 1, we should see a 60% decline resulting into a 17 million dollar three day weekend score. Skyfall will have a small decline in comparison, probably in the 40% range keeping it in line with Casino Royale, which should end up with 21 million for the weekend. Lincoln should continue its strong run and I only see a 35% drop, which is good considering it’s the drop off for a holiday weekend where 50% declines are more common. That should take it to 17 million for the weekend as the Spielberg flick continues its strong run towards its inevitable awards awaiting at the finish line. Rise of the Guardians should be interesting as it will dive into the 50% decline because the audience isn’t there, nor is the word of mouth as strong as most animated flicks are during this time. Look for a 12 million disappointing sophomore frame as someone is DEFINITELY going to get fired at Dreamworks animation for this movie. Life of Pi I think will continue its good start with a small 35% decline as people will want to find out what all the fuss is about. With that, it should bring it to a 15 million weekend as we still if America bites onto the lure Ang Lee has cast. Red Dawn will probably have a pretty hard fall as it got destroyed in reviews (12% from RottenTomatoes) so look for a 60% decline, resulting in a 6 million dollar second frame. Wreck-It Ralph will probably continue its consistent run with a 35% decline so it’ll draw in 11 million for the weekend, holding up a lot better than Rise of the Guardians. Let’s review!

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1.) Skyfall: 21 million
2.(tied) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2: 17 million
2. (tied) Lincoln: 17 million
4.) Life of Pi: 15 million
5.) Rise of the Guardians: 12 million
6.) Wreck-It Ralph: 11 million
7.) Killing Them Softly: 9.5 million
8.) Red Dawn: 6 million
Somewhere in BFE.) The Collection: 2 million

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And with that, let the weekend begin, have fun at the movies, and I await your judgements to see if I got any of these correct!