On December 30th, the UFC is putting on UFC 141, whose main event will feature a heavyweight collision between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem! I felt it necessary to throw my two cents into the penny fountain that everybody else has thrown their two cents into, and give you my breakdown of this fight and my prediction for it.
Brock Lesnar is coming off over a year off from fighting, and during which he had to overcome his second serious bout with Diverticulitis. Last October, we saw Cain Valasquez pick Brock Lesnar apart in the first round with his striking, until a final TKO victory for Valasquez, stealing the title from Lesnar. I will not say that striking is Lesnar’s issue, after all who can forget the incredible right hand that sent Heath Herring in a backward cart-wheel across the cage, breaking his Orbital bone. I will say that Lesnar’s issue, is striking defense. Brock hasn’t quite found out how to get hit, and keep moving forward. This fault may present a huge problem when fighting Alistair, who will undoubtedly be the best striker that Lesnar has fought thus far in his career.
Overeem comes into this fight making his UFC debut, and there is a big question mark over how well he is going to be able to stop Brock Lesnar’s takedowns. Brock has made quite a name for himself with his explosive takedowns, over powering of opponents, and destructive ground and pound.
It is my prediction that Overeem, will do absolutely everything in his power to keep Lesnar on his feet for as long as this fight goes. Alistair will continually be looking for that one punch knockout that he is so famous for. I think Brock will be ready for this and he will keep his feet moving in an attempt to tire out Alistair and make him chase him a bit. Alistair is known for the fact that he is not the fastest heavyweight on his feet, and after so long of chasing Lesnar, Alistair will get gassed. Lesnar will get a take down in the first round and keep Alistair there, throwing a couple body shots until the end of the round. At the start of the second, you will see the start of Alistair getting tired, and in a last effort to knock out Lesnar, Alistair will push as hard as he can for the first minute of the round and maybe even land a couple of shots, but not strong enough to knock Lesnar off of his feet. Once Alistair is gassed, you will see an explosive take down from Lesnar and a ground and pound stoppage for Brock Lesnar before the end of the second.
Alistair Overeem is a fantastic fighter, and one of the most dominant strikers in MMA today. However, after listening to a couple of interviews with Overeem, I think he is severely under-estimating Brock in this fight. Alistair has said over and over again, that he will be able to defeat Brock Lesnar without a whole lot of effort. The problem is that as I said earlier, you have one fighter looking for a one punch knockout, while another fighter is looking for a take down. It is much easier to get a takedown than it is a knockout punch, which is why I say Lesnar will be successful in this fight.
I believe this will place Alistair Overeem in line to fight Frank Mir next, and given a Frank Mir victory you will see Frank Mir fight the winner of JDS and Brock Lesnar. Alistair on the other hand will either be out of the UFC or fighting Shane Carwin when he returns from injury.